China will overtake the United States The largest economy in the world Before the end of the decade after it overtaken its rival during the global Covid-19 pandemic, according to a report.
center Economics Business Research said it now expects the value of the Chinese economy when measured in dollars to exceed that of the United States by 2028, half a decade earlier than expected a year ago.
The UK-based advisory group said in its annual periodic schedule of growth prospects for 193 countries China It quickly recovered from the effects of Covid-19 and will grow 2% in 2020, as the only major global economy that will expand.
The center said that with the United States expected to shrink by 5% this year, China will work to narrow the gap with its biggest competitor. In general, global GDP is Expected to decrease Up 4.4% this year, in the biggest decline in one year since World War II.
We expect it to become a higher-income economy during the current five-year plan period (2020-25). We expect it to overtake the United States a full five years in advance, « said Douglas McWilliams, CEBR Vice Chairman. Than we did a year ago.
« Other Asian economies are also advancing in the league table. One of the lessons for Western policymakers, who have performed relatively poorly during the pandemic, is that they need to pay more attention to what is happening in Asia rather than just looking at each other. »
The center said that China’s share of global GDP increased from 3.6% in 2000 to 17.8% in 2019 and will continue to grow. It will cross the per capita threshold of $ 12,536 (£ 9,215) to become a high-income country by 2023.
However, living standards in China will still be much lower than in the United States and Western European countries. In the US, the average per capita income is just over $ 63,000, while in the UK it is just over $ 39,000.
CEBR said leaving the European Union will not prevent the United Kingdom – which will likely be the world’s fifth largest economy in 2020 – from being one of the top performing economies in the next 15 years.
“We expect the UK to have a trend growth rate of 4.0% per year from 2021-25, 1.8% per year from 2026-30 and 1.8% per year from 2031 to 355,” the consultancy said.
“India is expected to overtake the UK in 2024, but it will maintain its place in the league table until 2025. By 2035, the UK’s GDP in dollars is expected to be 40% higher than in France, its old rival and neighbor.”
India, after overtaking France and the UK last year, has slipped again behind the UK as a result of the sharp depreciation of the rupee. But the downturn will be short-lived, as the world’s second most populous country is on track to become the third largest economy by 2035.
The center said environmental issues will begin to seriously affect the shape of the global economy over the next 15 years after a period in which the effects of global warming are emerging more quickly than previously feared.
« Sea levels are expected to rise by 45 cm from the base of 2000 by 2035. This is compared to the smaller height of 20 cm by 2030 that was projected two years ago. »
As more countries draw up plans to transition to a carbon-free economy in the coming decades, the center said that demand for fossil fuels will be weak and oil prices decline. She added that the cost of a barrel of crude oil will drop to less than $ 30 by 2035.
